Positionen im Wert von rund 500 Millionen US-Dollar wurden innerhalb weniger Stunden aufgelöst, als die Tesla-Nachrichten dazu führten, dass Bitcoin einen Anstieg von über 46.000 US-Dollar verzeichnete.

Bitcoin ( BTC ) hat seine Rallye am 9. Februar um mehr als 46.000 US-Dollar verlängert , einen Tag nachdem eine Einreichung der US-amerikanischen Börsenaufsicht SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) ergab, dass Tesla BTC im Wert von 1,5 Milliarden US-Dollar gekauft hat . Der Preis für Bitcoin stieg am 8. Februar sofort von rund 39.000 USD auf 45.000 USD an den wichtigsten Börsen, nachdem sich die Nachricht zu verbreiten begann.

Als der Bitcoin-Preis anfänglich auf 45.000 USD stieg, wurden Short-Positionen im Wert von 500 Mio. USD liquidiert

Der Begriff Liquidation auf dem Bitcoin-Futures-Markt bezieht sich darauf, wenn sich der Preis von BTC in kurzer Zeit schnell über die Liquidationspreise von Futures-Kontrakten hinaus bewegt.

Wenn ein Händler beispielsweise das 10-fache des Grundkapitals leiht und eine Bitcoin-Position in Höhe von 100.000 USD mit 10.000 USD handelt, wird die Position nach einer Kursbewegung von 10% liquidiert.

Nach Angaben von Bybt.com wurden in den letzten 24 Stunden Futures-Positionen im Wert von 1,34 Mrd. USD auf dem Futures-Markt liquidiert.

Dies weist auf zwei Trends hin; Erstens war der Derivatemarkt mit Leerverkäufern extrem überfüllt. Als die Tesla-Nachrichten bekannt wurden, verursachte dies einen massiven kurzen Druck, bei dem Positionen im Wert von Hunderten von Millionen Dollar in mehreren Stunden aufgelöst wurden.

Zweitens zeigt es, dass viele Investoren nicht damit gerechnet haben, dass Tesla tatsächlich in Bitcoin investiert, selbst nachdem Musk am 29. Januar 2021 seine Biografie in „Bitcoin“ geändert hat.

Was passiert als nächstes?

In der Zwischenzeit sind Kryptowährungshändler aufgrund der extrem hohen Refinanzierungsraten an den wichtigsten Terminbörsen vorsichtig.

Die Finanzierungsraten steigen, wenn die Mehrheit des Marktes Bitcoin kauft oder sich danach sehnt. Wenn die Finanzierungsraten zu hoch sind, ist der Markt anfällig für einen langen Druck, der kurzfristig zu einem intensiven Rückgang führen kann.

Ein Kryptowährungshändler namens „Loma“ sagt jedoch, dass der Markt noch nicht übermütig ist. Er sagte, wenn ein Punkt kommt, an dem die Händler übermäßig zuversichtlich sind und keinen größeren Rückgang erwarten, ist eine Korrektur wahrscheinlich. Er sagte :

„Ich möchte, dass wir an den Punkt kommen, an dem die Leute darüber sprechen, dass es für uns unmöglich ist, 70-90% zurückzuverfolgen, bevor ich daran denke, meine Spot-BTC-Positionen zu schließen. Ich erinnere mich, dass ich das Gefühl hatte, dass BTC 2018 auf keinen Fall wieder unter 10.000 USD fallen könnte. Wir gingen auf ~ 3.500 USD. Sag niemals nie.“

The crypto banking and financial services platform Celsius Network (CEL) plans to insure its users‘ funds against unforeseen losses.

The today their co-founder and CEO Alex Mashinsky on twitter announced

“You asked about it and we listened. We’re going to have a self-insurance plan for all @CelsiusNetwork users that covers all of your coins, it will take a few months, but it will insure coins that are on loan to institutions and exchanges, „Mashinsky tweeted, adding,“ Nobody else has today such an insurance. “

Auto insurance is a risk management method whereby a company or individual chooses not to use third party insurance (which usually charge a premium in excess of the expected loss). For this purpose, a company sets aside a certain pool of funds that would be used in an emergency – and without paying any additional costs.

In the case of Celsius, this means the platform is likely to gradually amass a “rainy day fund” that will be used to cover unexpected losses that could affect its users

However, Mashinsky did not explain what damage would be considered „insured“. While hacking attacks are a prime example of an emergency that should be covered by insurance, there are many other risks associated with cryptocurrencies such as Crypto Engine (See How to Buy Bitcoin ) or Ethereum .

The Celsius Network, launched in 2018, enables its users to receive returns – regular payouts and interest – on their cryptocurrency deposits and various other services such as wallet-style loans and payments.

Aside from being used in a number of internal functions, Celsius ’native token, CEL, can also increase users‘ returns if they pay for something with it.

Over the past 30 days, the CEL price has dropped all the way down to $ 4 from around $ 6 but has since stabilized around $ 5.

Predicción del precio de Bitcoin (BTC) – 29 de enero de 2021

Desde el 22 de enero, el precio de BTC/USD rompió por primera vez el soporte de $30,000 y retrocedió. Durante la semana pasada, el cripto ha estado fluctuando entre $30,000 y $34,000. No ha habido un movimiento de precios significativo ya que los niveles de rango aún no se han roto.

• Niveles de resistencia: $45.000, $46.000, $47.000
• Niveles de soporte: $35,000, $34,000, $33,000
• BTC/USD – Gráfico diario

Hoy, el precio de BTC está cayendo después de volver a probar los niveles de resistencia de $34,000. Durante la semana pasada, los toros han hecho intentos en la resistencia tres veces para romperla. Cada intento resulta en una caída al rango de precios más bajo. Los osos han hecho una fuerte contención para hundir el precio de BTC por debajo del nivel de soporte de 30.000 dólares. El soporte de 30.000 dólares se ha roto dos veces y la criptomoneda se desplomó hasta un mínimo de 28.000 dólares.

Poco después, los alcistas „compraron las caídas“ cuando el Bitcoin Superstar se recuperó por encima del soporte de 30.000 dólares. Este ha sido el escenario del mercado ya que el precio de BTC está en un rango entre $30,000 y $34,000. La posibilidad de una ruptura es inminente si el movimiento en el rango persiste. En la situación actual, una ruptura obligará a la moneda a descender hasta el mínimo de 25.800 $. Del mismo modo, una ruptura catapultará a la moneda a subir por encima del nivel psicológico de precios de 40.000 dólares.

El Año Nuevo chino podría aumentar la presión de venta de Bitcoin, según un analista
El 12 de febrero, se presume que son las próximas vacaciones del Año Nuevo Chino. Se conoce como el Año Nuevo Lunar o Festival de Primavera. El Año Nuevo chino es una de las mayores fiestas que se celebran en el país. La fiesta se caracteriza por el aumento del gasto. Los analistas creen que esta festividad afectará indirectamente a la presión de venta de Bitcoin. Una de las principales razones de las inminentes ventas en el mercado se debe a la intención de los mineros asiáticos de descargar sus fondos durante la próxima semana de vacaciones.

También se estima que el 60% de los grupos de minería de Bitcoin a nivel mundial se encuentran en China. El jefe de investigación de Stack Funds, Lennard Neo, indicó que se espera una gran presión de venta por parte de los mineros chinos. Lennard Neo afirmó que la venta en curso coincide con las próximas vacaciones, lo que significa que el precio mínimo aún no se ha visto: „Con las próximas vacaciones del Año Nuevo chino, esperamos que esta presión de venta continúe a corto plazo, proporcionando buenas oportunidades de entrada para los participantes en el mercado. […] También esperamos que esta volatilidad persista en las próximas semanas, añadiendo presión a nuevas correcciones para los precios de Bitcoin.“

BTC/USD – Gráfico diario

Mientras tanto, el Bitcoin se encuentra en un rango entre los 30.000 y los 34.000 dólares. Los toros y los osos aún no han roto los niveles del rango. El 21 de enero la tendencia bajista; un cuerpo de vela de retroceso probó el nivel de retroceso de Fibonacci del 78,6%. El retroceso indica que el mercado caerá y se revertirá en el nivel 1.272 de Fibonacci. Es decir, Bitcoin alcanzará un mínimo de 25.107,30 dólares.

Bitstamp is the first major exchange to suspend trading and XRP filings following the SEC’s allegations. Other platforms may follow suit.

Bitstamp suspends XRP

The Bitstamp cryptomonaie platform announced on Saturday, December 26 that it will temporarily cease trading and XRP deposits for all its U.S. customers following accusations by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC):

„In light of the recent complaint filed by the SEC against Ripple Labs Inc. alleging that XRP is a security, we will cease all trading and filings of XRP for our U.S. customers on January 8, 2021 at 9:00 p.m. UTC.“

Thus, Bitcoin Evolution review restrictions will only apply to U.S. customers. In addition, XRP withdrawals from customers located in the United States will still be allowed.

Bitstamp is the first major exchange to suspend XRP trading. Smaller platforms such as Beaxy, Cross Tower and OSL have already taken the plunge.

In addition, there have been rumors that Coinbase has entered into discussions with lawyers about delinsting XRP. Coinbase is in an awkward position as the exchange is currently preparing its IPO with the SEC. As a precautionary measure, the platform could withdraw the XRP.

Other reactions

Bitwise Crypt Fund Manager Bitwise also liquidated $9.3 million of XRP held in its Crypto Index:

„Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund does not invest in assets that may be considered securities under federal or state law.“

MoneyGram, the global money transfer service, also clarified the nature of its partnership with Ripple. In a press release issued on December 23, MoneyGram revealed that it has never used Ripple’s counterparty services, namely the On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) and RippleNet for foreign exchange transactions.

While MoneyGram has quickly changed course, Japanese financial group SBI Holdings said the SEC lawsuit does not yet affect its partnership. Ripple’s preferred partner said :

„As far as we are aware, the lawsuit is ongoing and no injunction has been issued against Ripple, the company continues to operate as usual and continues to expand RippleNet.“

The XRP rate fell from $0.63 to $0.23, a drop of almost 63% in one week. XRP is trading at $0.276 at the time of writing.

IOTA founder David Sønstebø was „removed“ from the IOTA Foundation on December 10th.
Now he has published an article on this. He says the aftermath of the breakup was avoidable.

IOTA founder David Sønstebø broke his silence on December 26th about the matter of his departure.

Sønstebø published a statement on Medium . In the posting, he gave his side of the story back and left public messages for the remaining board members of the IOTA Foundation.

Technically happy

For the public, Bitcoin Circuit was moving in a positive direction at the end of 2020. In December, IOTA formed a partnership regarding ecological sustainability solutions. On November 30th, the platform announced its next generation wallet – Firefly. In addition, the public test network of IOTA 1.5, called Chrysalis, went live. But behind the scenes the tension grew.

Only sparse at first

The first official indication that something was wrong came in the form of a short post on the IOTA Foundation (IF) blog. In it, the board of directors and the supervisory board declared that their interests and those of Sønstebø had „diverged significantly“. They thanked him for establishing the unit they led and wished him entrepreneurial success.

However, on December 12th, an addendum appeared on the blog. The foundation reminded readers that “IOTA is not about a single person.” At the same time, the foundation emphasized the role that David Sønstebø played in the establishment and initial development. They also wrote that his departure would change “absolutely nothing” in the strategy and delivery of Chrysalis and Coordicide.

Sønstebøs Answer

On December 26th, Sønstebø published his version of what happened. He explains that he was silent at first so that the publication of Chrysalis could continue.

Sønstebø claims that what prompted him to write his article was the preventable chaos created by the IOTA Foundation. His departure, he writes, could have been coordinated between him and IF to suppress loose talk.

Rather than describing a tit-for-tat style of attack, Sønstebø points to three salient features of the development of the project that led to the split. He focuses on the maturity of the project and the need for a separate CEO / COO.

Then he focuses on the finances (especially in 2020) and his repeated proposal to liquidate the foundation to keep the IOTA project itself independent of the markets.

He also emphasizes that the liquidation proposal was not due to financial problems of the IOTA Foundation. Finally, he describes a panicked board member who sees a potential benefit – the creation of new services – slipping away. In his opinion, as the founder, they never had this opportunity.

The increased interest of institutional investors is spurring new crypto projects.

Some of the biggest players in the crypto industry are supporting a new trading platform for crypto derivatives, which may suggest that the current upward trend is being driven primarily by increased interest from institutional investors.

The said crypto trading platform called Globe has already raised 3 million US dollars in start-up capital for the development of the Globe Derivative Exchange in an initial financing round

The declared aim of the platform for derivatives trading is to give institutional investors access to the crypto market. The project’s early investors include big names such as billionaire and crypto investor Tim Draper , Bitcoin Profit investment firm Pantera Capital and venture capitalist Y Combinator.

Pantera Manager Paul Veradittakit confirms that the increased interest of institutional investors in cryptocurrencies is the main reason for his company’s investment in Globe.

Veradittakit told Cointelegraph:

“There is a wave of interest in cryptocurrencies coming from big banks, fintech companies and investment firms. Globe has developed a platform and products that are tailored to this highly professional clientele. […] We are pleased that we can support the Globe team in building a future-oriented platform for the crypto financial system. “

Globe has developed a proprietary matching and risk assessment engine called Thor. As the company claims, Thor was designed by developers from several major financial institutions, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America Securities, Citibank, UBS, and Getco.

Trading in crypto derivatives has grown significantly this year, as evidenced by the increased trading volume for crypto futures on platforms such as BitMEX, HuobiDM, OKEx and Binance. The increasing trade in derivatives is clear evidence of the evolution of the crypto industry over the past three years.

According to a new study by the Kraken crypto exchange, the market for crypto derivatives is „now at least 4.6 times as large as the spot market“. Whereby the spot market is understood to mean the market on which cryptocurrencies are traded directly and not the financial products based on them.

Kraken sees the availability of leverage as one of the driving factors behind the attractiveness of derivatives trading. Globe states on its own website that it offers up to 100 times the leverage.

As a reminder: Leverage describes a literal leverage effect in trading, which makes it possible to achieve higher profits through the use of outside capital. However, there is also an increased risk associated with it.

I futures Bitcoin da 450 milioni di dollari sono destinati a scadere venerdì e i dati mostrano che i trader pro rialzisti sono pronti a difendere 13.000 dollari.

Un totale di 62K opzioni Bitcoin (BTC) sono impostate per scadere questo venerdì, e questo equivale a $830 milioni di dollari di interesse aperto. Queste cifre massicce non riflettono il fatto che il 58% di queste opzioni sono ora considerate senza valore.

Man mano che ci avviciniamo alla data di scadenza, le opzioni call (buy) al di sopra del livello attuale iniziano a deprezzarsi molto velocemente. Non vale la pena di pagare 20 dollari per l’opportunità di acquistare BTC a 14,5 mila dollari il venerdì mattina. Pertanto, le opzioni a rotazione al mese successivo non sono molto utili.

Con meno di 48 ore alla scadenza di ottobre, le opzioni call (buy) sopra i $14,5K e sopra le probabilità di faccia slim. Lo stesso si può dire per le opzioni put (vendita) di 11,5K$ che sono attualmente scambiate al di sotto di 10$ a testa.

Deribit è in testa con una quota di mercato del 70% delle opzioni che sono ancora valide. Attualmente, ci sono $134 milioni di opzioni call (buy) da $11,5K a $13,5K, contro $45,5 milioni di opzioni put (sell) da $12,5K a $14,5K. Quindi, i tori favoriscono gli orsi con un rapporto di 3:1.

Il Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) detiene una quota di mercato del 26% tra le opzioni Bitcoin Revolution di ottobre che contano ancora. Le opzioni call (buy) vicino all’attuale livello di mercato ammonta a 72 milioni di dollari, mentre la put (vendita) è inferiore a 1 milione di dollari. Questo movimento non è diverso dalle scadenze passate, poiché i trader di opzioni CME sono di solito estremamente rialzisti.

Pertanto, c’è attualmente uno squilibrio di $160 milioni di dollari che favorisce i tori sui mercati delle opzioni BTC. Questo è un numero rilevante considerando che la scadenza avviene in un determinato momento. Le opzioni OKEx e Deribit e i futures sono impostati per scadere alle 8:00 AM (UTC) del 30 ottobre, e il CME qualche ora dopo alle 16:00 PM (UTC).

I futures aperti di solito cadono in prossimità della scadenza

Molti trader ritengono che anche i Bitcoin futures da 5,4 miliardi di dollari di interesse aperto scadranno venerdì. La maggior parte di questi contratti sono perpetui (inverse swap) o impostati per una data successiva.

Questa volta, CME conduce con 360 milioni di dollari di interesse aperto per ottobre, ma c’è un tranello. Questo nozionale si ridurrà drasticamente in anticipo rispetto alla scadenza quando i trader sposteranno le loro posizioni per i prossimi mesi. Come prova di questo movimento, l’interesse aperto di ottobre del CME è stato tagliato ieri di 130 milioni di dollari.

Non importa quanto grande sia la vittoria o la perdita di un investitore, il ribaltamento della posizione per la prossima scadenza è fattibile. A differenza dei mercati delle opzioni, i contratti futures non si svalutano in prossimità del loro ultimo giorno di trading.

Il margine dei futures viene aggiustato quotidianamente, il che significa che l’acquirente del contratto (long) viene pagato dal venditore (short) quando Bitcoin fa trading al rialzo, e succede l’opposto se il prezzo BTC chiude. Entrambe le parti possono trarre vantaggio dal ribaltamento delle loro posizioni, a patto che ci sia un margine sufficiente per mantenerlo.

Per i trader professionisti, il premio sui futures è l’indicatore più utile per valutare quanto sono rialzisti o ribassisti questi investitori. Al momento della scrittura, OKEx guida le rimanenti borse con 69 milioni di dollari che scadranno venerdì, seguiti dai 23 milioni di dollari di Huobi.

Questo indicatore è noto come base, e di solito varia tra il 5% e il 15% di tasso annualizzato. Ogni volta che il premio è positivo, il mercato si caratterizza per essere in contango. Nel frattempo, livelli inferiori al 5% indicano una modesta ribassatezza.

Un premio negativo sui contratti futuri è altamente inusuale e di solito è legato a problemi di liquidità.

Come mostra il grafico sopra riportato, gli investitori sono stati molto rialzisti in agosto, poiché il contratto future a 1 mese è stato negoziato con un premio del 25% o superiore. Ciò è stato causato da un aumento del 30% dei Bitcoin da $9,1K a $11,9K.

L’indicatore di base si trova attualmente vicino al 14%, sull’orlo di una zona molto rialzista. Bisogna considerare che ogni posizione rialzista con leva finanziaria aperta negli ultimi sei mesi sta attualmente guadagnando.

Nel frattempo, i futures BTC aprono interessi più che raddoppiati a 5,4 miliardi di dollari, dai 2,6 miliardi di dollari di aprile. Pertanto, si può concludere che gli investitori sono ben preparati a difendere l’attuale livello di supporto di $13K.

Entrambi i contratti derivati stanno sostenendo l’attuale forza del mercato. A parte lo squilibrio di scadenza delle opzioni da 160 milioni di dollari, gli acquirenti di contratti futures stanno mantenendo una posizione comoda.

Inoltre, dato che Bitcoin ha avuto un picco da 11,3 mila dollari appena dodici giorni fa, i venditori allo scoperto hanno sofferto e guardano i loro bilanci diminuire ogni giorno.

Per quanto riguarda la scadenza di venerdì, ci si deve aspettare una maggiore volatilità come al solito, ma per quanto riguarda il premio sui futures, è improbabile che gli orsi abbiano la possibilità di ristabilire il controllo dei mercati.